Risk-Based Auto-Deleveraging

By Steven Campbell, Natascha Hey, Ciamac C. Moallemi, Marcel Nutz

Rating

1492
Battle Count: 77

Relevance

8/10
Highly relevant for quantitative traders operating on cryptocurrency perpetual futures exchanges. The paper provides a principled framework for understanding and predicting ADL outcomes, which directly affects position management, leverage decisions, and risk exposure during extreme market events. The factor leverage concept and water-filling structure inform how traders should manage cross-margin portfolios to minimize ADL risk. The empirical analysis of the Hyperliquid event provides concrete evidence of how current exchange practices deviate from risk-optimal allocations. However, the paper is primarily a mechanism design and risk management contribution rather than a trading strategy paper.

Implementation Complexity

7/10
The single-asset water-filling rule is extremely simple to implement (sort by leverage, drain to threshold). The multi-asset ADMM scheme requires careful calibration of penalty parameters, scenario generation, and parallel computation. Exchange-scale implementation involves handling heterogeneous asset scales, sparse portfolios, and large account counts (11,026 accounts × 37 assets). The Risk-optimal allocation at exchange scale requires significant computational resources (1.15×10⁵ seconds), while the Water-filling benchmark is fast (3.70 seconds). The theoretical framework requires understanding of convex optimization, risk measures, and stochastic modeling.

Reproducibility

5/5
The paper provides a GitHub repository (https://github.com/nataschahey/adl-paper-repro) with code and cleaned data. All proofs are provided in appendices. The empirical setup uses publicly available Hyperliquid REST API data and Allium on-chain data. Detailed algorithm specifications (ADMM), parameter calibrations, and data reconstruction pipelines are documented. Theoretical results are fully analytical with closed-form expressions where applicable.

About this paper

Methodology: Risk-Based Optimization with ADMM and Sample-Average Approximation. Problem types: Optimization, Risk Management, Portfolio Optimization.

The interactive Everscope explorer (charts, battles, favorites) loads below.