A Taxonomy of Event-Linked Perpetual Futures: Design Axes, Failure Modes, and Empirical Evaluability

Battle Count: 70

Highly relevant for quantitative trading in prediction markets and event-linked derivatives. The paper provides critical risk-management frameworks (terminal shortfall tests, support-dependent margin, asynchronous finality handling, basket support bounds) that directly inform trading system design. However, it is a taxonomy/specification paper rather than a strategy or pricing paper, so it does not provide actionable trading signals or alpha-generating models. Its value is in preventing catastrophic design errors in event-derivative trading infrastructure, margin systems, and risk controls. Most relevant for market makers, exchange operators, and risk managers in prediction market venues.

The formal results (Propositions 1-6) are mathematically straightforward and directly implementable as risk checks. The four-axis taxonomy requires significant engineering effort to encode as a machine-readable contract specification system. The empirical evaluability ladder and minimum data requirements are practical but demanding: many designs require data (e.g., address-level quote lifecycle, joint-market semantics, multiple complete event cycles) that may not be available. The corrected inheritance matrix provides clear control-assignment logic but requires careful state-machine implementation for asynchronous finality and multi-source composition.

The paper is purely formal/theoretical with no empirical dataset queried or numerical results recomputed. All proofs are self-contained and verifiable. The source package includes revision notes, formal audit, shared series style, build report, and cryptographic manifest. However, no code or data is provided since no empirical work is performed. Reproducibility of the formal results is straightforward; reproducibility of any future empirical application depends on data availability.