Markets Are Not Random, They Are Hard to Predict: Instrumental Probability, the P–Q Wedge, and the Limits of Learnable Alpha

By Miquel Noguer i Alonso

Published 2026-06-09

Everscope rating

1303.9

Relevance to quantitative trading

9 / 10

Implementation complexity

3 / 10

Reproducibility

2 / 5

About this paper

Methodology: Theoretical Unification via Mathematical Finance and Information Theory. Problem types: Risk Management, Portfolio Optimization, Algorithmic Execution, Market Making, Causal Inference, Density Estimation, Time Series Forecasting.

arXiv:2606.08209 · Paper rankings

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