An Actuarial Cost and Revenue Model for Helicopter Emergency Medical Services: Estimating Population-Based Coverage and Sustainability Thresholds

Battle Count: 50

This paper is entirely focused on healthcare economics and actuarial pricing for helicopter emergency medical services. It has no direct relevance to quantitative trading, financial markets, or algorithmic trading strategies. The only tangential connection is the use of Monte Carlo simulation as a general probabilistic technique, but the application domain (healthcare cost estimation) is completely unrelated to trading.

The core model is a straightforward algebraic breakeven calculation (N* = TC / (Rb + Rm)) implemented in Excel. The Monte Carlo simulation adds moderate complexity with parameterized distributions for 5 variables over 10,000 iterations. The main complexity lies in data acquisition (proprietary DRG claims data, IMPLAN salary data) and understanding the healthcare reimbursement landscape. The mathematical framework itself is accessible to anyone with basic algebra and introductory statistics knowledge.

Data and analysis tools are publicly available on Zenodo (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20601704). The model is implemented in an Excel spreadsheet with a RunMonteCarlo macro. Medicare fee schedule data is publicly available from CMS. All cost assumptions, data sources, and formulas are transparently documented. However, the Clarivate DRG dataset itself is proprietary and not freely accessible. The AI-assisted copy editing and Monte Carlo draft generation are disclosed.