Do Prediction Markets Match Option Prices? Bitcoin Threshold Evidence from Binance and Polymarket

By Victoria Portnaya

Published 2026-06-17

Everscope rating

1749.5

Relevance to quantitative trading

8 / 10

Implementation complexity

5 / 10

Reproducibility

4 / 5

About this paper

Methodology: Option-Implied Benchmark Test with AR(1) Discrepancy Analysis. Problem types: Regression, Time Series Forecasting, Causal Inference, Risk Management, Pairs Trading, Market Making, Algorithmic Execution.

arXiv:2606.19517 · Paper rankings

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