Modeling interest rate swap volatility with GARCH processes

By Michał Balcerek, Michał Wronka

Rating

1500
Battle Count: 0

Relevance

8/10
Highly relevant for fixed-income desks and risk managers. The identification of volatility regimes (high vs. low) and the link to collateralization changes (LIBOR/OIS/SOFR) provide actionable insights for hedging interest rate risk and pricing swaptions. The comparison with SRVIX offers a benchmark for model-implied volatility.

Implementation Complexity

6/10
Standard GARCH models are easy to implement. MSGARCH requires more complex numerical optimization (Hamilton filter, EM algorithm or MLE with latent states) and careful handling of regime identification and convergence issues.

Reproducibility

2/5
The paper uses proprietary data from S&P Global which is not publicly available. While the methodology is standard, exact replication requires purchasing the specific dataset. No code repository is mentioned.

About this paper

Methodology: Conditional Volatility Modeling with Regime Switching. Problem types: Time Series Forecasting, Risk Management, Volatility Modeling.

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