Certified Alpha Capacity: Statistical Evidence, Economic Lifetime, and Arbitrage under Decay

By Nicolò Bonacorsi

Rating

1856
Battle Count: 50

Relevance

10/10
Highly relevant. It provides a rigorous framework for deciding when to deploy a trading signal based on the trade-off between statistical confidence and economic decay, directly addressing the 'alpha decay' problem in quantitative finance.

Implementation Complexity

8/10
High complexity. Requires understanding of sequential analysis, information theory (KL divergence), optimal stopping theory, and game-theoretic equilibrium modeling. Implementation involves solving free-boundary problems and estimating signal lifetimes.

Reproducibility

5/5
The paper provides a Zenodo DOI for the 'AlphaValue' software release containing numerical routines, CLI, synthetic examples, and regression tests. Installation instructions are provided.

About this paper

Methodology: Information-Theoretic Sequential Analysis. Problem types: Sequential Hypothesis Testing, Optimal Stopping, Market Equilibrium Analysis, Alpha Decay Modeling, Multiple Testing Correction.

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