By Francesco Cesarone, Massimiliano Corradini, Nicolò Giunta, Serena Rocci
Within the framework of non-extensive statistical mechanics, q-Gaussian distributions arise as maximum-entropy solutions of Tsallis entropy under suitable escort moment constraints. Although widely used in physics, biology, geology, finance, and related fields, standard q-Gaussians are intrinsically symmetric and cannot capture asymmetric fluctuations often observed in empirical data. We ask whether asymmetry can arise from the Tsallis maximum-entropy principle without externally skewing or joining distributions. We show that this is achieved by retaining the Tsallis entropy and imposing a global escort mean together with distinct downside and upside escort semi-variances. The key step is to reformulate the problem of maximum Tsallis entropy in terms of the escort density. The nonlinear escort constraints then become affine, while maximizing Tsallis entropy becomes equivalent to maximizing a strictly concave functional over a convex feasible set. Consequently, any admissible stationary solution is the unique global maximizer of the corresponding variational problem. The finite-sample approximation properties of the proposed asymmetric q-Gaussian are studied through Monte Carlo experiments using synthetic data generated from Azzalini skew-Student distributions. Compared with the classical symmetric q-Gaussian, the asymmetric specification systematically provides a closer approximation to synthetic asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions. Finally, we fit the model to return series from major equity indices, a commodity, and cryptocurrencies, and compare its in-sample goodness of fit with that of a symmetric q-Gaussian. The results show that the asymmetric model offers a closer in-sample description of unconditional return distributions, most clearly in the tails.
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